TLDR; CBOE may have a good chance of getting the BTC ETF approved by the SEC. The SEC has until August
16th to approve or Deny the application. If approved, Q1 of 2019 is when the ETF is expected to launch.
As most of you probably know the CBOE has filed to list BTC as an ETF with the SEC. What this means is that BTC will end up accessible to traditional investors and can be purchased on traditional investment platforms. It is very likely, in my opinion, that they will get the a-okay from the SEC to list BTC as an ETF.
Why do I say this? Well let's look at the history.
- In 2014 the Winklevoss Twins
tried to file a BTC ETF with the SEC
- In 2016 we had SolidX
that tried to file a BTC ETF with the SEC
- In 2017 we had the NYSE
file for a BTC ETF with the SEC
- Also in 2017 we had the CBOE launch BTC futures
- Lastly, in June of this year we had the CBOE file for a BTC ETF with the SEC where the ETF is "being offered through the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust - a joint venture between financial firms VanEck and SolidX"
So why haven't any of these ETF's seen the light of day? The answer can be explained by this refreshing piece of journalism
"In March 2017, the US SEC claimed that the Winklevoss ETF proposal was rejected because Bitcoin, as a digital asset, was not regulated properly overseas without proper regulatory frameworks in place. The agency also noted that there lacks insurance around cryptocurrencies.".
So regulatory frameworks and insurance have been the two biggest obstacles in the way of the SEC approving the ETF. Luckily for us, cryptocurrency is a global affair and we're noticing more Anti-Money Laundering (AML) policies and standards of security. Additionally, overseas markets like Japan and South Korea arguably have better regulatory frameworks than the US, with Japan leading the G20 in creating an international standard for crypto regulation."
. Unfortunately for the SEC, crypto is global and I have no doub that they are fully aware that slacking on crypto regulation and acceptance = losing out on billions of dollars - but more importantly losing global economic leverage. I have no doubt in my mind all countries which are late to the crypto game will find themselves becoming a 2nd world country, in a relative sense.
Anyhow, back to the CBOE and SEC. The CBOE is a company with a market cap of $11b.
If, obviously rich and well connected, people of an $11b company, which has existed since 1973
, decides that spending the time and energy to investigate, create, modify, and go through all legal and regulatory frameworks to file a BTC ETF with the SEC - where rejections have been hot since 2014 - They know what they're in for. This isn't some team of plebs working on some sort of maybe. This is a team of who knows how many professionals, for sure getting paid big bucks (and maybe even having their jobs on the line), cumulatively deciding that even though the SEC has rejected BTC ETF's in the past, their application may have a shot.
Why is the CBOE application different? Well, aside from the increased regulatory processes crypto has gone through, on a global dimension ; the CBOE has stated that their BTC ETF will be INSURED
. That right there is a big deal! This means if the CBOE gets hacked, it isn't some Mt.Gox or bitgrail situation where people are out millions... That simply won't matter to ETF investors. I would also argue that running BTC futures without much of a hitch, will make things easier for the SEC to pass this CBOE BTC ETF (but that's just my opinion).
If/when this happens the ETF is expected to go live in the first quarter of 2019
. I don't expect much to happen until then (at least in the Western Crypto space in which I am most familiar with). Lastly, the whole reason for this post is that
August 10th of this year is the rumored date for the SEC to approve or deny the application August 16th is the date rumored for the SEC to make their decision
, so that'll be a big day for BTC. The SEC states that they make a decision 45 days after a request.
What I am very curious about is that if the crypto market keeps moving upwards towards that date, the challenge will be trying to figure out if its us retail investors buying the rumors or if well connected individuals are buying the future news.
**If I am talking bs or made mistakes in this post please call me out on it. That's how we all learn. Thanks! **
Edit : I am wrong about August 10th. The date to look out for is August 16, according to this post
The Winklevoss twins have seen their wealth more than double since January, thanks to the frenzied rally of Bitcoin, which surged as much as 22% Wednesday. BetterBitcoin is a subreddit for news, discussion and jokes about the currency of the internet (or the internet of currency): Bitcoin. By Jasmine Teng The Winklevoss twins have seen their wealth more than double since January, thanks to the frenzied rally of Bitcoin, which surged as much as 22% Wednesday. Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss’s combined net worth -- consisting mainly of Bitcoin and crypto assets -- climbed to $1.45 billion, the highest since March of 2018, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Winklevoss Capital is a family office founded in 2012 by Tyler Winklevoss and Cameron Winklevoss. The firm invests across multiple asset classes with an emphasis on providing seed funding and infrastructure to early-stage startups. The company is headquartered in New York’s Flatiron District. ↑ Nathaniel Popper, Peter Lattman: Winklevoss Twins Plan First Fund for Bitcoins. In: DealB%k. The New York Times, 1. Juli 2013, abgerufen am 5. August 2013 (englisch). ↑ Markus Böhm/AFP: Virtuelle Währung: Winklevoss-Zwillinge planen Bitcoin-Vermögensgesellschaft. In: SPIEGEL ONLINE. SPIEGEL ONLINE GmbH, 2. Juli 2013, abgerufen am 5.
Autoplay When autoplay is enabled, a suggested video will automatically play next. Up next The Winklevoss Twins Eat, Sleep, and Breathe Bitcoin - Duration: 18:04. In 2011, the Winklevoss twins, known for suing Mark Zuckerberg over the idea of Facebook, invested $11 million into Bitcoin. That's now valued at more than $1 billion. Winklevoss twins become first bitcoin billionaire. They became famous as the privileged pair of Harvard athletes who believe Mark Zuckerberg stole their idea for Facebook. Now, entrepreneurs Cameron and Tyler... "Its going to be fast. In the next 2 years there will be a completely different landscape such as the Internet during 98 and 2000" NOW is the Time... Bitcoin is the Future of Money, Get Yours!